The generic ballot model uses two predictors - the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the president’s party - to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. The generic ballot - a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates - has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. Projecting 2022 through the House generic ballot Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. In today’s Crystal Ball, Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz presents his model for the 2022 midterm House and Senate races, which is informed by House generic ballot polling and the number of seats each side is defending next year. You do not need to sign up for Reunions Remixed to watch today’s Crystal Ball webinar. See here for more information on Reunions Remixed. The webinar is part of the UVA Alumni Association’s Reunions Remixed, which is being held virtually June 9-12. To submit a question for today’s webinar, tweet with the hashtag #AskSabato or email us at We will try to get to as many questions as possible. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m.
Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J.
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